On 30.12.2004 EUR/USD hit an all time high @ 1.3669. The next day started a sell off which continued into the first days of the next year. EUR lost more than 6 big figures in just 6 working days. Today is the last day of the year. After the US session open the euro is again under pressure. The next few days will tell us if it is just long positions liquidation before the New Yera’s Eve or may be the US Dollar shows its seasonal strength.
GBP bears went through 2.0000 and 1.9880 support levels and now their next target is the support zone 1.9520-50. Technical indicators are in negative territory and making new lows for the move. The market is oversold and a corrective bounce towards 2.0000/100 is possible.
The bulls and bears are fighting for the 1.4350 level. This is 38.2% fib retracement and previous swing high. If the bears manage to overcome this level the next obstacles on the way to the H&S target (1.4090) are 1.4280 and 1.4160. The intraday price action tells me that the bears are in control, although a Swiss private bank was a buyer today at the morning support near 1.4370/80. A couple of weeks before the recent dollar rally, the same or another Swiis bank was EUR/USD seller.
After the BoE minutes GBP/USD broke below the uptrend line. Next targets are 2.0000 and 1.9880. A rally to 2.012o is possible before the next leg down.
Another attempt higher was stopped near the yesterday’s high @ 2.0227. UK CPI data were in line with the market expectations and prompted a sell off which resulted ina another test of the uptrend line currently holding @ 2.0110. Technical indicators are still in negative territory and favor test of the psychological 2.0000 level.
GBP/USD broke below the 200-day MA (2.0138), but was able only to touch the uptrend line, which currently is near the 2.0100 level. If this support is broken the next target is the psychological 2.0000 level. The technical indicators are in negative territory favoring another leg lower.
GBP/USD is near major support levels. Yesterday’s low @ 2.0146 is just above the 200-day MA (2.0138) and the uptrend line (2.0090). If the currency pair closes below this support zone a deeper correction towards 2.0000 and 1.9875 is expected.
Today EUR/USD broke the neckline of the head&shoulders formation. Now the market targets 1.4080 with firts supports @ 1.4350 and 1.4280.
Yesterday’s break below 1.4640 formed a head and shoulders on the daily EUR/USD chart. The neckline is @ 1.4530 which is slightly above the strong support @1.4520. If the neckline is broken the measured target of the move is around 1.4100.
After the strong US retail sales and PPI data the support @ 1.4640 was broken. Now the focus of the whole forex market turns to the key 1.4520 level. If this support is broken we can see a deeper correction towards 1.4350 and 1.4280.