GBP/USD broke the downtrend line after the stronger than expected retail sales data from last week. Technical picture looks now constructive but for uptrend we can talk only after we see a daily close above 1.9960. First support is @ 1.9740.
After 3 failed attempts, finally EUR/USD is above 1.5000. The fundamental explanations were the stronger than expected Ifo and Fed’s Vice Chairman Kohn concerns about downside risks to growth. The real reasons probably KO barriers above 1.5000 and the strong euro uptrend. All the bad news for the US economy should be priced in by the forex market, but the Big boys need directional movement to make money and have all the knowledge and resources to generate it. Let’s see if ECB has something to say?
GBP/USD is in clear downtrend. Three days ago the market confirmed the downtrend line and started new leg lower. If it breaks below 1.9335 the next target is 1.9180 and then the lower band of the downtrend channel currently aroung 1.8910.
EUR/USD complete 61.8% retracement of the downward movement from 1.4950 to 1.4440. This upside correction could extend to 1.4780/90. For another leg lower the market should close below the support zone 1.4610/40.
If the EUR/USD breaks breaks lower we can see dollar strength across the board which can spill over to USD/JPY also. Very important is the 107.92 resistance level. If this resistance gives way the rally could extend to 110.10 and even 111.oo.
EUR/USD is consolidating within a ascending triangle chart formation. This is a continuation pattern but this time it could be broken to the downside. If the currency pair breaks below 1.4395 the measured target is 1.3750. The bulls will not throw the towel without fight and another attempt for restoring of the trend is possible with first resistance @ 1.4590 and 1.4660. If the support @ 1.4395 is broken the next downside targets are 1.4360, 1.4310 and 1.4120.
Today the US dollar strenghtened across the board. The reason is still unclear, but the sell level of the Evening star formation was triggered. Next targets are 1.4590 and 1.4510. EUR/USD is in wide consolidation between 1.4300 and 1.4970. One of these levels should be broken before the market finds new direction.
After the surprisingly negative NFP report the EUR/USD was unable to overtake the life time high and a sell off followed helped by the positive surprise ind the ISM index. The volatile price action formed a bearish reversal Evening star pattern. If in the next few days the market breaks and closes below 1.4755 the short term picture will be positive for the dollar. It will be helped by the declining technical studies.
