Archive for June, 2008
The dollar fall continued Friday. New all-time high in oil above $142 pb and another sell off in the stock market weighed on the greenback. EUR/USD is still in the well defined range but as we approach the upper boundary the verbal interventions by central bankers and politicians will be intensified. If the pair [...]
Another crazy day in the forex market. Rumours that Chrysler filed fot Chapter 11 provided an excuse for another round of US dollar and stocks sales and buying in oil and metals. Chrysler of course denied the rumours but who cares. Big guys make money in the markets and for the last year they have [...]
New life-time highs for the EUR/JPY underpinned by the hawkish Trichet and buying by US invesment houses and hedge funds building new carry trade positions. Some market participants expect FX warning out of ECB, Eurozone finance ministers and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet in particular, who may need to warn on “brutal FX” again and as [...]
Yesterday the FED wasn’t as hawkish as the market wanted and the US dollar was sold off across the board. Technical studies are supporting further rally of the EUR/USD towards the upper boundary of the range. Next resistance levels are 1.5765 and 1.5840. Any pullback should find buyers around 1.5620 and 1.55.45/35.
After a quiet Asian session misunderstainhg witih the speculators camp created some volatility today. You can see the long shadows on the 5 minutes candelsticks chart. It was strange that asiand and russians were in different camps. First the russians were bueyrsa and asians were sellers. The both parties realized their mistakes and changed the [...]
According to CFTC “Speculative traders’ interest in crude oil now account for roughly 70% of all trading in West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange, compared with 37% in 2000.”
Some officials still argue that the oil buble is not speculative. Why they are so “sure”?
http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/cftcfactsheet062308.pdf
Today I found a very interesting article on www.telegraph.co.uk – Has Europe’s terminal crisis begun with a triple no vote? by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. I absolutely agree with the author and wonder whenwill become clear that the EU is not what it should be and its currency is overvalued.
www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/23/ccview123.xml#comments
EUR/USD gave up all of the Friday’s gains yesterday after the worse than expected Ifo index. Key support is 1.5455/60 and if it is broken we can see another test of the current range, which is around 1.5300/285 levels, Today and tomorrow probably the forex market particioants will anticipate the FOMC decision, which is expected [...]
Ifo index came out worse than expected and euro lost some 40 pips in a minute. The forex market is still in a range mode but Wednesday’s FOMC meeting may provide reasons for a directional move. FED may hint that rate hikes are considered in the near futures, which will boost the dollar. Mr. Bernanke [...]
EUR/USD was underpinned yesterday by articles in FT, Washington Post and WSJ arguing that the market expectations for a FED hike are not realistic. Euro buying was replaced by selling after ECB’s Bini Smaghi said that one rate hike will be enough to tame the inflation in the Eurozone and the worse than expected ZEW. [...]