Forex Analysis

Monday someone bought 1-month EUR/JPY 150.00 puts. After this the pair was sold off and plunged almost 8 big figures. Interesting coincidence.

The last 1/3 of the position was stopped @ 169.82

The last 1/3 of our previous position was stopped. We opened another short position near the recent life time high. We closed 2/3 of the position @ 169.72 for 22 pips profit and placed a stop @ 169.93 for the last 1/3.

Our stop survived for a few pips. On the chart the support @ 169.00 is obvious and if the market breaks below next target is 168.20. Ours limit is @ 168.30.

2/3 of the position were closed @ 169.09 for 60 pips profit. The rest of the position is still open with stop @ 169.69 and target 168.30

Yesterday EUR/USD completed a perfect 2B set up. After the ZEW numbers the pair made a new life-time high above 1.6018. This new high was not sustained and the market moved below the previous high. At this point we sell 2 pips below 1.6018 and place protective stop above the new high (1.6037). In this caes the stop is above 1.6050 because round numbers and 50’s are used for options barriers. Initial profit target is at least 50 pips.

The dollar fall continued Friday. New all-time high in oil above $142 pb and another sell off in the stock market weighed on the greenback. EUR/USD is still in the well defined range but as we approach the upper boundary the verbal interventions by central bankers and politicians will be intensified. If the pair climbs above 1.60 a coordinated action by the central banks is highly possible. Support is @ 1.5680 and 1.5620. Resistance is @ 1.5845 and 1.6020.

Another crazy day in the forex market. Rumours that Chrysler filed fot Chapter 11 provided an excuse for another round of US dollar and stocks sales and buying in oil and metals. Chrysler of course denied the rumours but who cares. Big guys make money in the markets and for the last year they have show that the fundamentals are just numbers. Whatever, EUR/USD reached the resistnace @ 1.5770/75 but couldn’t break above it. Today we may see another attempt and I wonder what will be the excuse this time. I suggest to the big speculators to say “we make money and that’s why i sell dollars”. The resistance is # 1.5770/75 and 1.5845. Support is @ 1.5655 and 1.5535.

After a quiet Asian session misunderstainhg witih the speculators camp created some volatility today. You can see the long shadows on the 5 minutes candelsticks chart. It was strange that asiand and russians were in different camps. First the russians were bueyrsa and asians were sellers. The both parties realized their mistakes and changed the direction but their roles also. The effect was more volatility in the forex market.

EUR/USD is trading with heavy tone. Various officials are trying to talk the dollar up. Some ECB board members are explainign that the rate hike in July will be one time event and not a start of another series of rate hikes. Today’s results of the Lisbon treaty referendum in Ireland could be very interesting. A “NO” vote will cause sell off in EUR and the results from the preliminary polls are too close to call. The focus is on the support @ 1.5365 and then 1.5280. Rallies towards 1.5480 and 1.5540 will meet decent sell interest.