Archive for the ‘Fundamental Analysis’ Category
This is the chart of EUR/USD in the previous election year 2004. The price action looks similar to this year’s. Consolidation from the mid-Spring to mid-Autumn then breakout of the range. Previous elections had Republican winner but this time may be different. Could we see different direction of the break out? I think we can.
According to CFTC “Speculative traders’ interest in crude oil now account for roughly 70% of all trading in West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange, compared with 37% in 2000.”
Some officials still argue that the oil buble is not speculative. Why they are so “sure”?
http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/cftcfactsheet062308.pdf
Today I found a very interesting article on www.telegraph.co.uk – Has Europe’s terminal crisis begun with a triple no vote? by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. I absolutely agree with the author and wonder whenwill become clear that the EU is not what it should be and its currency is overvalued.
www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/23/ccview123.xml#comments
EUR/USD broke both boundaries of the ascending triangle and closed within the pattern. This means that the market is very volatile and neither bulls nor the bears are winning. Some interesting developments could be noticed these days. Interest rate markets are starting to discount the end of the FED’s rate cuts cycle. This could be [...]
EUR/USD broke to the upside the ascending triangle pattern. MACD shows divergence with the price action but obviously the buyers from Russia and Mid East countries don’t care abot the technical analysis. Some banks and hedge funds are complaining about the excessive volatility as they complained about the low volatility two years ago. The forex [...]
“Since our last meeting, there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability,” the G-7’s finance ministers and central bankers said in a statement after their meeting in Washington. Next week we’ll see if this is enough for the forex market [...]
FED cuts rates with 75 bps. In the statement again were mentioned the downside risks to growth and we can expect further easing. Some analysts expect Fed funds rate at 1%. The reaction of the forex market was choppy after the announcement. EUR/USD is extremely overbought and is due for correction but at the same [...]
The market participants were “dissapointed” by yesterday’s FED move. FOMC cut by only 25 bp both rates. It’s strange why the market expectations changed during the last few days even after the stronger NFP report last Friday. I think the answer is simple. If the FED meets always the market expectations after the decision is [...]
Today is teh NFP day. The US Employment report is probably the most important of all the market moving events. Today’s NFP will probably afect the markets more than usually because it precedes very important FOMC meeting. If today we see number greater that 100K FED may skip this rate cut or may cut [...]